Euro Area – USA: Monetary Policy Expectations

In a recent post (see here) I mentioned the dependency of the Euro Area monetary policy to the Fed’s monetary strategy. On a chart I showed monetary policy expectations on both side of the Atlantic.
In a nutshell, the point was to say that the short part of the bond market in the Euro Area seemed to be more dependent on the US market than on the Euro Area monetary policy.
Two days after the Fed’s decision to postpone its reduction in asset purchases it is interesting to see that the premium is lower in the US (expectations that rate hikes will be seen later than expected (this can also be seen on fed fund futures)) and that the bond market  dynamics in the Euro Area has followed the same path.
This issue is problematic as it shows that the Euro Area interest rate momentum is not really depending on the ECB. This reflects the importance of the US central bank in the shape of capital markets. That’s what Hélène Rey said in Jackson Hole during the meeting in  August (see here)

 us-ea-mpexpect-19nov-2013

One thought on “Euro Area – USA: Monetary Policy Expectations

  1. Pingback: A new LTRO for the ECB | Philippe Waechter's blog

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