More instability to come in Greece?

The situation will remain complex and probably unstable in the coming weeks in Greece. Here are some few reasons:

Polls this week have shown that the two branches of the alternative in the referendum had almost the same percentage of vote. It means that if the result is as narrow as these polls it will be difficult to manage. But ok in a democracy one more voice is sufficient.

Nevertheless, details of polls show that people above 55 years of age vote mainly for the yes and those below 55 years of age vote for the no. This referendum reflects also a generational perception of the environment. Those, above 55, like stability and want to keep what they have. Younger people try or imagine being able to create their own future. It’s two different stories and the referendum can create a new environment that can be less cooperative.

Source @YiannisBab

A victory of the Yes doesn’t mean political stability. A victory of the Yes would imply the current government resignation and some new general elections. But with the current electoral law the party that arrives first has a bonus of 50 seats. And this party could be Syriza. 

Parties that favor the yes have no consistent behavior and target one with each other. New Democracy, Pasok and To Potami may join on Europe only and that’s not sufficient to form a stable government. So a Yes could mean political instability.  (Read the excellent paper of Hugh Dixon on this point)

As it is suggested by a Guardian article this morning, restrictions (on cash, food, pharmaceuticals) will have long lasting effects on the economy. The shock will push it down back in recession while there were positive signals on activity and employment at the end of last year. 

The long period of recession has broken the Greek society. There is a need to solve economic questions but political stability is at least more important. There is a need not to fall in a chaos. 

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Picture: Shop shelves are almost empty on July the 4th

  

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