Brexit…the UK view

At a conference in London, I listened to a Welsh member of the European Parliament’s statements on Brexit this afternoon.

A number of points are worth noting on this MEP’s remarks:

The first point is the intention that has already been stated elsewhere of standing against the whole world to make Brexit a success, and this triumph requires the support of the entire British population.

[Comment: no objections from the floor] Continue reading

The UK will have to agree to single market rules

Agreement on the Brexit “divorce bill” is very good news, involving the UK settling its outstanding commitments to the rest of Europe. Trade negotiations will now be able to start and they will not be straightforward, as Michel Barnier recently explained with the backing of the remaining EU 27. There will be no exceptions to the rule, the UK cannot have a tailor-made agreement, all sectors will be treated equally with no special allowances. Continue reading

British economy falls behind since referendum

The comparison of industrial activity in the European economy is very instructive when we consider the period after the British referendum on Brexit.
Despite the acceleration of world trade, British industrial production is lagging behind the various countries of the Eurozone. This is shown in the graph below.
The profile of industrial activity in Italy flies across all the major European countries, while the United Kingdom is clearly lagging behind, especially since the beginning of 2017. The gap is significant with the index of the euro zone as well as with France, Germany and Spain.
Continue reading

Soft Brexit …or how to do a swift about-turn

In the wake of the UK elections, the ensuing confusion suggests an increasing likelihood of a soft Brexit, as Theresa May does not have a majority and will have to deal with the situation as it stands. However, it cannot, and will not, be quite that simple as this would mean going back on the result of the Brexit referendum.

One source of confusion derives from the fact that British citizens’ image of Europe has changed considerably in the space of a year, and according to a survey by PEW Research Center in Spring 2017, a majority of the population in the UK has a positive view of Europe i.e. 54%, or 10 points higher than this time last year at the time of the referendum.

The idea of a soft Brexit has emerged as a result of Theresa May’s losses at the recent general election. Continue reading

Brexit has not started yet

The referendum on Brexit was almost two months ago (June 23). We are now far from the recession that was announced in the case of a “Leave” vote. Yesterday, retail sales for July were strong (+1.4%). It is not a fracture (see this article this morning in the Guardian).

But it is too soon to rule out the possibility of a recession.
The main reason for that is that no measures have been taken to change the rules with the European Union.

Economists said that two points were important Continue reading