Corporate surveys in November show that the pace of growth is still accelerating in the Euro Area. This can be seen at the global level but also in every sector, notably in the manufacturing sector where the stronger momentum is consistent with a higher international trade dynamics. Surveys also show that employment is increasing rapidly and that nominal pressures remain limited.
Growth in France is set to come to 1.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. From today’s standpoint, these figures look high as trend growth for the French economy came to slightly more than 1.1% on a yearly basis between 2013 and the third quarter of 2017, making 2017 and 2018 look like good vintages. However, a comparison with the pre-crisis period is harsh. Trend growth for the French economy stood at 1.8% over the period between 2000 and 2008 and could go well beyond this figure, which equates to the cycle peak in today’s economy.
The extent of the economic cycle provided leeway for all concerned as growth could go well beyond this trend, e.g. coming out at 4% in 2000. French economic policy at the time did not generally view this cycle peak as an opportunity to adopt a more restrictive strategy, and France as a whole was unable to reduce imbalances when growth was strong, particularly from a budgetary standpoint. The French budget “funding pot” concept, invented during periods of vigorous growth, was used to justify all sorts of spending on the back of higher budget revenues. Continue reading
The economic prospects in the Euro Area are clearly on the upside in September. The synthetic index which is a weighted average of the manufacturing and services indices is at its highest since April 2011. This suggests a rapid growth figure for the second part of 2017.
The manufacturing index is at its highest since February 2011 and the index for services is close to top levels seen at he beginning of the year.
Growth and employment are on the upside. It’s time for the Euro Area to create conditions for a long term sustained growth strategy with structural reforms locally and for the European institutions
The graph compares the composite indices for the 4 major countries of the Euro Area plus the United Kingdom
The French economic momentum is now close and in phase with what is seen in Germany pushing the Euro Area dynamics on the upside. Spain remains a major contributor. It’s hard for Italy to follow the other 3 notably in the service sector.
The question of Spain is important: it has been a major contributor to the EA growth since 2014 but internal troubles after the referendum in Catalonia could create a less homogeneous trend in Spain and could damage the EA prospects. For the moment the uncertainty remains high.
The United Kingdom does not take advantage of the contagion that may come from the Euro Area. We see that since mid-2017 there is a divergence between the Euro Area and the UK. That’s Brexit uncertainty.
Synthetic indices on economic activity stabilized in August according to the Markit Survey that was out this morning. These figures are consistent with a 0.5/0.6% GDP growth for the third quarter (non annualized figures).
The employment momentum is still robust but doesn’t accelerate anymore. But the business cycle is still virtuous with a strong momentum in the manufacturing sector. The survey price index stabilized in August. The ECB can maintain its accommodative bias on its monetary policy. The more expansive euro has not yet influenced companies’ behavior.
Following the link, you will read the Economic Outlook for August 2017 Economic Outlook-August 2017