Are the Fed’s interest rate projections credible?

At the FOMC meeting on September 19 and 20, members charted the central bank’s so-called dot plot of expected rates for the years out to 2020, involving one interest rate hike in 2017, three in 2018, two in 2019 and only one in 2020, leading to an end figure of 2.875% vs. 1.125% currently. These figures published by the Fed are generally extreme, as the US central bank endeavors to influence investors’ expectations to suit its own narrative. Continue reading

United Kingdom – Weak domestic demand and higher rates from the Bank of England – A recipe for a recession?

Negotiations on Brexit may lead to a negative and persistent shock in the United Kingdom as it will deeply change rules for the external trade. Therefore there is a need to carefully look at the domestic demand momentum in order to eventually counterbalance this negative and persistent shock.
At the same time, the Bank of England has mentioned (Carney in Sintra or Saunders here) that the monetary policy could be normalized. In other words, the BoE is wondering if there is still a need for stimulus. Here too it is interesting to carefully look at the domestic demand to see if the need for stimulus is superfluous or not. Continue reading

On Markets’ Valuation

This is my weekly column on Forbes.fr
It is available in French here

Here is the English version

The financial markets are carrying high prices in industrialized countries and this makes for some seriously tough choices for investors who want to invest their capital. Very low interest rates mean very expensive bonds. Meanwhile, the equity markets have recently staged a spectacular rally, particularly in the US after Donald Trump’s election. Seeking to invest savings on markets that are already expensive or very expensive is a difficult and complex process. In the past, we have always seen a wide range of assets with vastly differing valuations, so choices were easier as there were often assets that had been neglected by investors and carried a discount. But things no longer work that way for a number of reasons.

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